Pittsburgh Penguins at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals2
- Evgeni MalkinAssists3
- Evgeni MalkinPoints4
CapitalsScoring summary
- P316:57Reilly Smith Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (3)4–0
- P211:46Sidney Crosby Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (2), Jake Guentzel (3)3–0
- P25:51Sidney Crosby Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (2), Evgeni Malkin (1)2–0
- P24:07Evgeni Malkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (1), Erik Karlsson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:07Evgeni Malkin Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Rickard Rakell (1), Erik Karlsson (1)PIT 1 – 0 WSH · PIT 46% → 64% +18PIT 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P25:51Sidney Crosby Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (2), Evgeni Malkin (1)PIT 2 – 0 WSH · PIT 65% → 81% +16PIT 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P211:46Sidney Crosby Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (2), Jake Guentzel (3)PIT 3 – 0 WSH · PIT 83% → 93% +10PIT 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P316:57Reilly Smith Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (3)PIT 4 – 0 WSH · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | — | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +45 Elo | WSH 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Penguins: last 1