Calgary Flames at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Dillon DubeGoals1
- Dillon DubeAssists1
- Dillon DubePoints2
Capitals- Connor McMichaelGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists1
- Connor McMichaelPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Evgeny Kuznetsov Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P29:54Connor McMichael Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Phillips (1), John Carlson (1)2–2
- P26:50Matthew Phillips Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (1)2–1
- P117:12Dillon Dube Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (4), Adam Ruzicka (2)2–0
- P14:47Adam Ruzicka Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (3), Dillon Dube (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:47Adam Ruzicka Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noah Hanifin (3), Dillon Dube (1)CGY 1 – 0 WSH · CGY 45% → 60% +15CGY 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P117:12Dillon Dube Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Hanifin (4), Adam Ruzicka (2)CGY 2 – 0 WSH · CGY 63% → 77% +15CGY 63% → 77%+15 pts
- P26:50Matthew Phillips Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sonny Milano (1)CGY 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 19% → 35% +16WSH 19% → 35%+16 pts
- P29:54Connor McMichael Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Phillips (1), John Carlson (1)CGY 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 34% → 54% +20WSH 34% → 54%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Fair odds
- WSH -123
- CGY +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | — | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.25 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +40 Elo | WSH 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 0.031st of 31 |
| 20th of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 4.020th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.5 | Margin | −4.030th of 31 |
| 20th of 3146.8% | Shot share | 35.2%30th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 88.6%22nd of 31 |
| 9th of 220–1 | Road vs home | 0–121st of 25 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Flames: last 2