Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Andrew MangiapaneAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals2
- Kris LetangAssists2
- Bryan RustPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:38Bryan Rust Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (5)2–5
- P316:05Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Andrew Mangiapane (2), Noah Hanifin (2)2–4
- P314:14Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (1)1–4
- P35:50Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (3), Sidney Crosby (1)1–3
- P30:41Reilly Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (4), Ryan Graves (1)1–2
- P30:18Bryan Rust Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (2), Jake Guentzel (4)1–1
- P218:22Matt Coronato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (3), Rasmus Andersson (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P218:22Matt Coronato Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (3), Rasmus Andersson (1)CGY 1 – 0 PIT · CGY 50% → 72% +23CGY 50% → 72%+23 pts
- P30:18Bryan Rust Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (2), Jake Guentzel (4)CGY 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 27% → 50% +24PIT 27% → 50%+24 pts
- P30:41Reilly Smith Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (4), Ryan Graves (1)CGY 1 – 2 PIT · PIT 50% → 74% +24PIT 50% → 74%+24 pts
- P35:50Jake Guentzel Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (3), Sidney Crosby (1)CGY 1 – 3 PIT · PIT 78% → 93% +16PIT 78% → 93%+16 pts
- P314:14Evgeni Malkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (1)CGY 1 – 4 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +1PIT >99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Fair odds
- PIT -103
- CGY +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | PIT on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +1 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.00 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +4 Elo | PIT 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 295.0 | Goals scored | 3.013th of 29 |
| 12th of 293.0 | Goals allowed | 2.07th of 29 |
| 5th of 29+2.0 | Margin | +1.010th of 29 |
| 26th of 2937.3% | Shot share | 58.0%5th of 29 |
| 13th of 2991.9% | Save percentage | 94.4%9th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Flames: last 1