Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Ryan HartmanGoals1
- Marcus FolignoAssists1
- Ryan HartmanPoints1
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00John Carlson Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P31:16Ryan Hartman Goal (5) Backhand, assists: none2–2
- P117:14Dylan Strome Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (4), Evgeny Kuznetsov (4)1–2
- P19:49Tom Wilson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (1), Trevor van Riemsdyk (1)1–1
- P12:17Marco Rossi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (2), Marcus Johansson (5)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:17Marco Rossi Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Marcus Foligno (2), Marcus Johansson (5)MIN 1 – 0 WSH · MIN 41% → 56% +15MIN 41% → 56%+15 pts
- P19:49Tom Wilson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor McMichael (1), Trevor van Riemsdyk (1)MIN 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 43% → 58% +16WSH 43% → 58%+16 pts
- P117:14Dylan Strome Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (4), Evgeny Kuznetsov (4)MIN 1 – 2 WSH · WSH 58% → 73% +16WSH 58% → 73%+16 pts
- P31:16Ryan Hartman Goal (5) Backhand, assists: noneMIN 2 – 2 WSH · MIN 22% → 45% +23MIN 22% → 45%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 59%
- Fair odds
- WSH -145
- MIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.8 – 3.4 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −10 | MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +61 Elo | WSH 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.9 | Goals scored | 2.229th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.4 | Goals allowed | 3.827th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −1.729th of 31 |
| 24th of 3145.8% | Shot share | 48.6%21st of 31 |
| 26th of 3188.1% | Save percentage | 86.5%29th of 31 |
| 17th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.