Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Morgan RiellyGoals1
- Morgan RiellyAssists1
- Morgan RiellyPoints2
Capitals- Alex OvechkinGoals1
- John CarlsonAssists1
- Alex OvechkinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P219:49Alex Ovechkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (3), Tom Wilson (2)4–1
- P215:07Auston Matthews Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (4), John Klingberg (5)4–0
- P26:29William Nylander Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1)3–0
- P25:41John Tavares Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (4), Tyler Bertuzzi (1)2–0
- P112:53Morgan Rielly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (1), Max Domi (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:53Morgan Rielly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Timothy Liljegren (1), Max Domi (4)TOR 1 – 0 WSH · TOR 46% → 62% +16TOR 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P25:41John Tavares Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Rielly (4), Tyler Bertuzzi (1)TOR 2 – 0 WSH · TOR 65% → 81% +16TOR 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P26:29William Nylander Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Auston Matthews (1)TOR 3 – 0 WSH · TOR 81% → 92% +10TOR 81% → 92%+10 pts
- P215:07Auston Matthews Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (4), John Klingberg (5)TOR 4 – 0 WSH · TOR 95% → 99% +4TOR 95% → 99%+4 pts
- P219:49Alex Ovechkin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: John Carlson (3), Tom Wilson (2)TOR 4 – 1 WSH · WSH <1% → 3% +3WSH <1% → 3%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 53%
- Fair odds
- WSH -120
- TOR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −8 | TOR: Joseph Woll: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +17 Elo | WSH 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 1.530th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.822nd of 31 |
| 14th of 310.0 | Margin | −2.330th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.6% | Shot share | 42.9%28th of 31 |
| 27th of 3187.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%24th of 31 |
| 9th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.