Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals2
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints2
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT0:47Cole Caufield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (3), Mike Matheson (2)2–3
- P317:59Dylan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1), John Carlson (2)2–2
- P311:25Dylan Strome Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (2), Matthew Phillips (2)1–2
- P29:50Brendan Gallagher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (2), Tanner Pearson (1)0–2
- P118:55Sean Monahan Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (2), Cole Caufield (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P118:55Sean Monahan Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Nick Suzuki (2), Cole Caufield (2)WSH 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 54% → 71% +17MTL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P29:50Brendan Gallagher Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (2), Tanner Pearson (1)WSH 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 73% → 87% +14MTL 73% → 87%+14 pts
- P311:25Dylan Strome Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (2), Matthew Phillips (2)WSH 1 – 2 MTL · WSH 2% → 16% +13WSH 2% → 16%+13 pts
- P317:59Dylan Strome Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1), John Carlson (2)WSH 2 – 2 MTL · WSH 2% → 49% +47WSH 2% → 49%+47 pts
- OT0:47Cole Caufield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (3), Mike Matheson (2)WSH 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 51% → 92% +41MTL 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 54%
- Fair odds
- MTL -122
- WSH +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | −18 | WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.44 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +31 Elo | MTL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.3 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 31 |
| 24th of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 4.329th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.7 | Margin | −1.025th of 31 |
| 30th of 3138.8% | Shot share | 45.1%24th of 31 |
| 26th of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 88.8%23rd of 31 |
| 19th of 280–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Capitals: last 3