Washington Capitals at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- Dylan StromeGoals2
- Alex OvechkinAssists1
- Dylan StromePoints2
Devils- Timo MeierGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists3
- Jack HughesPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:25Alex Ovechkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–4
- P32:09Connor McMichael Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Anthony Mantha (1), Nicklas Backstrom (1)5–4
- P30:18Dylan Strome Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (3), John Carlson (4)4–4
- P210:01Tyler Toffoli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (1), Jack Hughes (13)3–4
- P26:42Nico Hischier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (7), John Marino (3)3–3
- P25:19Timo Meier Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (12), Tyler Toffoli (3)3–2
- P24:31Tyler Toffoli Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Timo Meier (4), Jack Hughes (11)3–1
- P117:28Sonny Milano Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (1), Evgeny Kuznetsov (2)3–0
- P115:52Dylan Strome Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (3), Tom Wilson (3)2–0
- P16:37Anthony Mantha Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:19Timo Meier Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Jack Hughes (12), Tyler Toffoli (3)WSH 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 20% → 35% +16NJ 20% → 35%+16 pts
- P26:42Nico Hischier Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (7), John Marino (3)WSH 3 – 3 NJ · NJ 35% → 54% +19NJ 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P210:01Tyler Toffoli Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (1), Jack Hughes (13)WSH 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 54% → 73% +19NJ 54% → 73%+19 pts
- P30:18Dylan Strome Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (3), John Carlson (4)WSH 4 – 4 NJ · WSH 24% → 47% +23WSH 24% → 47%+23 pts
- P32:09Connor McMichael Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Anthony Mantha (1), Nicklas Backstrom (1)WSH 5 – 4 NJ · WSH 47% → 72% +25WSH 47% → 72%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 57%
- Fair odds
- NJ -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NJ and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −5 | WSH: Hunter Shepard (no track record yet) · NJ: Akira Schmid: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +51 Elo | NJ 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 311.4 | Goals scored | 4.33rd of 31 |
| 24th of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.316th of 31 |
| 30th of 31−2.4 | Margin | +1.06th of 31 |
| 21st of 3147.9% | Shot share | 51.5%15th of 31 |
| 29th of 3187.2% | Save percentage | 89.7%22nd of 31 |
| 26th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.