New Jersey Devils at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Jack HughesGoals2
- Jesper BrattAssists3
- Jack HughesPoints4
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Kyle PalmieriAssists2
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:19Jack Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (2), Timo Meier (2)5–4
- P318:49Bo Horvat Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (1), Mathew Barzal (1)4–4
- P34:30Jack Hughes Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ondrej Palat (2), Jesper Bratt (5)4–3
- P26:10Bo Horvat Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (2), Matt Martin (1)3–3
- P22:36Luke Hughes Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (6), Jesper Bratt (4)3–2
- P21:37Brock Nelson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (3)2–2
- P20:21Tyler Toffoli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (5), Jesper Bratt (3)2–1
- P119:00Dougie Hamilton Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Timo Meier (1), Akira Schmid (1)1–1
- P112:35Brock Nelson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre Engvall (2), Kyle Palmieri (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P22:36Luke Hughes Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (6), Jesper Bratt (4)NJ 3 – 2 NYI · NJ 46% → 64% +18NJ 46% → 64%+18 pts
- P26:10Bo Horvat Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (2), Matt Martin (1)NJ 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 35% → 54% +19NYI 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P34:30Jack Hughes Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ondrej Palat (2), Jesper Bratt (5)NJ 4 – 3 NYI · NJ 47% → 74% +27NJ 47% → 74%+27 pts
- P318:49Bo Horvat Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Anders Lee (1), Mathew Barzal (1)NJ 4 – 4 NYI · NYI <1% → 51% +50NYI <1% → 51%+50 pts
- OT2:19Jack Hughes Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: John Marino (2), Timo Meier (2)NJ 5 – 4 NYI · NJ 49% → 96% +47NJ 49% → 96%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 56%
- Fair odds
- NYI -124
- NJ +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 2.9 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | +6 | NJ: Akira Schmid (no track record yet) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +44 Elo | NYI 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 3.015th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.05th of 31 |
| 12th of 310.0 | Margin | +1.07th of 31 |
| 20th of 3148.4% | Shot share | 50.9%17th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.2% | Save percentage | 92.9%10th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Devils: last 2