New Jersey Devils at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Devils- Nico HischierGoals1
- Jack HughesAssists4
- Jack HughesPoints4
Canadiens- Mike MathesonGoals1
- Michael PezzettaAssists1
- Mike MathesonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:34Tyler Toffoli Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (10)5–2
- P310:35Mike Matheson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Caufield (3)4–2
- P37:17Tyler Toffoli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (9)4–1
- P30:34Nico Hischier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (8), Jesper Bratt (6)3–1
- P218:22Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (7)2–1
- P113:24Alexander Holtz Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Timo Meier (3), Dougie Hamilton (3)1–1
- P15:49Justin Barron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Pezzetta (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:49Justin Barron Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Pezzetta (1)NJ 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 51% → 66% +15MTL 51% → 66%+15 pts
- P113:24Alexander Holtz Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Timo Meier (3), Dougie Hamilton (3)NJ 1 – 1 MTL · NJ 33% → 49% +16NJ 33% → 49%+16 pts
- P218:22Tyler Toffoli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (7)NJ 2 – 1 MTL · NJ 49% → 72% +23NJ 49% → 72%+23 pts
- P30:34Nico Hischier Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (8), Jesper Bratt (6)NJ 3 – 1 MTL · NJ 74% → 90% +16NJ 74% → 90%+16 pts
- P37:17Tyler Toffoli Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Hughes (9)NJ 4 – 1 MTL · NJ 94% → >99% +5NJ 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 52%
- Fair odds
- MTL -104
- NJ +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NJ 3.1 – 3.1 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +2 | NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MTL: Cayden Primeau (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +11 Elo | MTL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 314.0 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.213th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 44.7%25th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 91.5%10th of 31 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 2–112th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.