Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Brendan GallagherAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints2
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:53Tanner Pearson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (1), Alex Newhook (1)3–1
- P33:31Brendan Gallagher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Savard (2), Tanner Pearson (2)2–1
- P17:13Jeff Skinner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (3), Rasmus Dahlin (6)1–1
- P12:56Justin Barron Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Arber Xhekaj (2), Sean Monahan (3)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:56Justin Barron Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Arber Xhekaj (2), Sean Monahan (3)MTL 1 – 0 BUF · MTL 45% → 59% +15MTL 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P17:13Jeff Skinner Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (3), Rasmus Dahlin (6)MTL 1 – 1 BUF · BUF 40% → 55% +15BUF 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P33:31Brendan Gallagher Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Savard (2), Tanner Pearson (2)MTL 2 – 1 BUF · MTL 47% → 73% +26MTL 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P316:53Tanner Pearson Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Brendan Gallagher (1), Alex Newhook (1)MTL 3 – 1 BUF · MTL 94% → >99% +6MTL 94% → >99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 58%
- Fair odds
- BUF -125
- MTL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +14 | MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BUF: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +55 Elo | BUF 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.426th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.8 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.619th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3145.3% | Shot share | 51.2%16th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 22nd of 310–1 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.