New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Noah DobsonGoals1
- Bo HorvatAssists1
- Noah DobsonPoints1
Sabres- Jeff SkinnerGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:39Noah Dobson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (2), Bo Horvat (1)1–3
- P32:40Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (5), Jordan Greenway (2)0–3
- P219:23Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (3), Jeff Skinner (1)0–2
- P216:37Jeff Skinner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (2)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P216:37Jeff Skinner Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (2)NYI 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 56% → 77% +21BUF 56% → 77%+21 pts
- P219:23Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (3), Jeff Skinner (1)NYI 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 78% → 92% +14BUF 78% → 92%+14 pts
- P32:40Dylan Cozens Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (5), Jordan Greenway (2)NYI 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 93% → 98% +5BUF 93% → 98%+5 pts
- P318:39Noah Dobson Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (2), Bo Horvat (1)NYI 1 – 3 BUF · NYI <1% → <1% +0NYI <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 59%
- Fair odds
- BUF -145
- NYI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 2.8 – 3.4 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | NYI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +2 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov (no track record yet) · BUF: Eric Comrie (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +60 Elo | BUF 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 59.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 2.326th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.519th of 31 |
| 12th of 310.0 | Margin | −1.326th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3147.7% | Shot share | 47.8%21st of 31 |
| 18th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 89.2%20th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Islanders: last 2
Head to head
NYI 1–0 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.