Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Jonathan HuberdeauGoals1
- Rasmus AnderssonAssists1
- Jonathan HuberdeauPoints1
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Dylan CozensAssists2
- Rasmus DahlinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:35Adam Ruzicka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (1), Dillon Dube (2)4–3
- P33:14JJ Peterka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (2), Henri Jokiharju (2)3–3
- P31:52Blake Coleman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (1), Dennis Gilbert (1)3–2
- P114:28Tage Thompson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), Rasmus Dahlin (4)2–2
- P110:15Walker Duehr Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (1), Yegor Sharangovich (1)2–1
- P16:06Erik Johnson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (3), Kyle Okposo (1)1–1
- P10:49Jonathan Huberdeau Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Elias Lindholm (4), Rasmus Andersson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:15Walker Duehr Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: A.J. Greer (1), Yegor Sharangovich (1)CGY 2 – 1 BUF · CGY 46% → 61% +16CGY 46% → 61%+16 pts
- P114:28Tage Thompson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (1), Rasmus Dahlin (4)CGY 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 38% → 54% +17BUF 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P31:52Blake Coleman Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Matt Coronato (1), Dennis Gilbert (1)CGY 3 – 2 BUF · CGY 47% → 72% +25CGY 47% → 72%+25 pts
- P33:14JJ Peterka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (2), Henri Jokiharju (2)CGY 3 – 3 BUF · BUF 27% → 53% +26BUF 27% → 53%+26 pts
- P34:35Adam Ruzicka Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Nazem Kadri (1), Dillon Dube (2)CGY 4 – 3 BUF · CGY 48% → 74% +27CGY 48% → 74%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 54%
- Fair odds
- BUF -122
- CGY +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −2 | CGY: Dan Vladar (no track record yet) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +30 Elo | BUF 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.026th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.7 | Goals allowed | 3.316th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.7 | Margin | −1.327th of 31 |
| 15th of 3152.4% | Shot share | 49.7%20th of 31 |
| 18th of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 89.3%19th of 31 |
| 14th of 250–2 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.