Columbus Blue Jackets at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jackets- Kent JohnsonGoals1
- Damon SeversonAssists2
- Damon SeversonPoints2
Wild- Marcus JohanssonGoals1
- Joel Eriksson EkAssists2
- Marcus JohanssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT3:07Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (3)5–4
- P317:01Marcus Johansson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (3), Dakota Mermis (2)4–4
- P314:41Adam Fantilli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (4), Damon Severson (2)4–3
- P37:36Boone Jenner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (2), Damon Severson (1)3–3
- P34:42Jonas Brodin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (3), Pat Maroon (2)2–3
- P28:15Mats Zuccarello Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan Hartman (1)2–2
- P27:21Dakota Mermis Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (2), Joel Eriksson Ek (2)2–1
- P26:10Kent Johnson Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Cole Sillinger (2)2–0
- P18:55Justin Danforth Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Jiricek (1), Mathieu Olivier (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P34:42Jonas Brodin Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Eriksson Ek (3), Pat Maroon (2)CBJ 2 – 3 MIN · MIN 55% → 80% +25MIN 55% → 80%+25 pts
- P37:36Boone Jenner Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Werenski (2), Damon Severson (1)CBJ 3 – 3 MIN · CBJ 18% → 46% +28CBJ 18% → 46%+28 pts
- P314:41Adam Fantilli Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (4), Damon Severson (2)CBJ 4 – 3 MIN · CBJ 47% → 88% +40CBJ 47% → 88%+40 pts
- P317:01Marcus Johansson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (3), Dakota Mermis (2)CBJ 4 – 4 MIN · MIN 6% → 52% +46MIN 6% → 52%+46 pts
- OT3:07Jack Roslovic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Johnny Gaudreau (3)CBJ 5 – 4 MIN · CBJ 48% → 98% +49CBJ 48% → 98%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 59%
- Fair odds
- MIN -145
- CBJ +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CBJ 2.8 – 3.4 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CBJ | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CBJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −4 | −7 | CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +63 Elo | MIN 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CBJ | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.510th of 31 |
| 10th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 4.027th of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.5 | Margin | −0.519th of 31 |
| 26th of 3143.3% | Shot share | 48.2%21st of 31 |
| 7th of 3193.0% | Save percentage | 89.0%22nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.