Calgary Flames at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Mikael BacklundAssists1
- Mikael BacklundPoints1
Blue Jackets- Justin DanforthGoals1
- Justin DanforthAssists1
- Zach WerenskiPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:39Zach Werenski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none1–3
- P310:37Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (1)1–2
- P38:45Justin Danforth Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (1), Zach Werenski (1)0–2
- P26:29Sean Kuraly Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (1), Ivan Provorov (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:29Sean Kuraly Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Justin Danforth (1), Ivan Provorov (3)CGY 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 57% → 75% +18CBJ 57% → 75%+18 pts
- P38:45Justin Danforth Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (1), Zach Werenski (1)CGY 0 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 83% → 96% +14CBJ 83% → 96%+14 pts
- P310:37Elias Lindholm Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (1)CGY 1 – 2 CBJ · CGY 3% → 16% +13CGY 3% → 16%+13 pts
- P317:39Zach Werenski Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: noneCGY 1 – 3 CBJ · CBJ 97% → >99% +3CBJ 97% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 59%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -145
- CGY +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 2.8 – 3.4 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | CGY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −5 | CGY: Jacob Markstrom: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CBJ: Spencer Martin: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +62 Elo | CBJ 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 59.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.324th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.721st of 31 |
| 15th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −1.326th of 31 |
| 10th of 3153.6% | Shot share | 43.0%26th of 31 |
| 19th of 3189.6% | Save percentage | 91.4%11th of 31 |
| 13th of 271–2 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.