Detroit Red Wings at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Olli MaattaAssists1
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints1
Blue JacketsScoring summary
- P212:07Andrew Copp Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (1), Jake Walman (2)4–0
- P211:11Dylan Larkin Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (2), Moritz Seider (2)3–0
- P27:45Michael Rasmussen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (3)2–0
- P18:51Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (1), Olli Maatta (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:51Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Veleno (1), Olli Maatta (1)DET 1 – 0 CBJ · DET 45% → 61% +16DET 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P27:45Michael Rasmussen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Compher (3)DET 2 – 0 CBJ · DET 66% → 82% +16DET 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P211:11Dylan Larkin Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Alex DeBrincat (2), Moritz Seider (2)DET 3 – 0 CBJ · DET 83% → 93% +10DET 83% → 93%+10 pts
- P212:07Andrew Copp Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (1), Jake Walman (2)DET 4 – 0 CBJ · DET 94% → 98% +4DET 94% → 98%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 55%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -122
- DET +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +1 | DET: James Reimer (no track record yet) · CBJ: Spencer Martin (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +33 Elo | CBJ 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 314.5 | Goals scored | 3.513th of 31 |
| 20th of 314.0 | Goals allowed | 3.516th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.5 | Margin | 0.013th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3159.7% | Shot share | 42.2%26th of 31 |
| 26th of 3186.3% | Save percentage | 93.5%10th of 31 |
| 9th of 220–1 | Road vs home | 1–119th of 25 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Red Wings: last 2