Minnesota Wild at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wild- Marcus FolignoGoals1
- Marcus JohanssonAssists1
- Marcus FolignoPoints1
Flyers- Bobby BrinkGoals2
- Cam AtkinsonAssists3
- Travis SanheimPoints3
Scoring summary
- P314:46Travis Sanheim Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyson Foerster (2), Travis Konecny (3)2–6
- P311:02Bobby Brink Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (2), Travis Sanheim (7)2–5
- P36:34Owen Tippett Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Atkinson (3)2–4
- P34:30Marcus Foligno Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (4), Marco Rossi (1)2–3
- P33:05Dakota Mermis Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Pat Maroon (5), Jon Merrill (2)1–3
- P29:52Bobby Brink Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (4), Cam Atkinson (2)0–3
- P27:28Sean Couturier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cam Atkinson (1), Travis Sanheim (6)0–2
- P113:57Travis Konecny Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:57Travis Konecny Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Seeler (1)MIN 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 55% → 71% +16PHI 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P27:28Sean Couturier Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cam Atkinson (1), Travis Sanheim (6)MIN 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 73% → 86% +14PHI 73% → 86%+14 pts
- P29:52Bobby Brink Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (4), Cam Atkinson (2)MIN 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 87% → 95% +8PHI 87% → 95%+8 pts
- P34:30Marcus Foligno Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Johansson (4), Marco Rossi (1)MIN 2 – 3 PHI · MIN 7% → 21% +15MIN 7% → 21%+15 pts
- P36:34Owen Tippett Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cam Atkinson (3)MIN 2 – 4 PHI · PHI 80% → 95% +15PHI 80% → 95%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -127
- MIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 2.9 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −15 | +12 | MIN: Filip Gustavsson: team allows 0.38 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.31 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +67 Elo | PHI 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MIN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 314.2 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 28th of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 2.78th of 31 |
| 16th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.313th of 31 |
| 24th of 3146.0% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 90.4%16th of 31 |
| 13th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.