Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Cody CeciAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints1
Flyers- Cam AtkinsonGoals2
- Sean CouturierAssists2
- Cam AtkinsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:17Cam Atkinson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (2), Sean Couturier (3)1–4
- P218:29Sean Walker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (2)1–3
- P215:23Zach Hyman Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cody Ceci (1), Connor McDavid (4)1–2
- P23:54Cam Atkinson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Owen Tippett (1)0–2
- P115:50Joel Farabee Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (1), Travis Sanheim (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:50Joel Farabee Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (1), Travis Sanheim (3)EDM 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 55% → 71% +16PHI 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P23:54Cam Atkinson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Owen Tippett (1)EDM 0 – 2 PHI · PHI 72% → 85% +13PHI 72% → 85%+13 pts
- P215:23Zach Hyman Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Cody Ceci (1), Connor McDavid (4)EDM 1 – 2 PHI · EDM 11% → 25% +14EDM 11% → 25%+14 pts
- P218:29Sean Walker Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (2)EDM 1 – 3 PHI · PHI 76% → 90% +15PHI 76% → 90%+15 pts
- P34:17Cam Atkinson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Owen Tippett (2), Sean Couturier (3)EDM 1 – 4 PHI · PHI 93% → 99% +5PHI 93% → 99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 59%
- Fair odds
- PHI -126
- EDM +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 2.9 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | +9 | EDM: Jack Campbell: team allows 0.29 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +60 Elo | PHI 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.723rd of 31 |
| 29th of 314.3 | Goals allowed | 2.38th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−1.0 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 17th of 3151.3% | Shot share | 52.6%13th of 31 |
| 29th of 3185.9% | Save percentage | 92.2%10th of 31 |
| 5th of 261–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.