Philadelphia Flyers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Noah CatesGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Cam AtkinsonPoints1
Golden Knights- Shea TheodoreGoals1
- Jack EichelAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:27Shea Theodore Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (5), Brayden McNabb (4)2–3
- P312:06Paul Cotter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (5), Kaedan Korczak (3)2–2
- P117:19Cam Atkinson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (3), Cam York (1)2–1
- P113:07Noah Cates Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (1), Travis Sanheim (5)1–1
- P16:54Ivan Barbashev Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (4), Jonathan Marchessault (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:54Ivan Barbashev Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jack Eichel (4), Jonathan Marchessault (1)PHI 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 70% +15VGK 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P113:07Noah Cates Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (1), Travis Sanheim (5)PHI 1 – 1 VGK · PHI 30% → 45% +16PHI 30% → 45%+16 pts
- P117:19Cam Atkinson Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (3), Cam York (1)PHI 2 – 1 VGK · PHI 46% → 63% +17PHI 46% → 63%+17 pts
- P312:06Paul Cotter Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (5), Kaedan Korczak (3)PHI 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 17% → 52% +35VGK 17% → 52%+35 pts
- P319:27Shea Theodore Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (5), Brayden McNabb (4)PHI 2 – 3 VGK · VGK 50% → >99% +49VGK 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 56%
- Fair odds
- VGK -123
- PHI +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +15 | +4 | PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.39 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +41 Elo | VGK 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 4.25th of 31 |
| 8th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 1.82nd of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +2.32nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.5% | Shot share | 52.1%14th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 93.5%4th of 31 |
| 18th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.