Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Joe PavelskiGoals1
- Thomas HarleyAssists1
- Joe PavelskiPoints1
Golden Knights- William KarlssonGoals1
- William KarlssonAssists1
- William KarlssonPoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Jonathan Marchessault Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Matt Duchene Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- SO0:00Shea Theodore Goal Wrist Shot1–2
- P317:01William Karlsson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (1), Mark Stone (3)2–2
- P32:50Joe Pavelski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1)2–1
- P213:03Kaedan Korczak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (2), William Karlsson (3)1–1
- P25:52Craig Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (1), Thomas Harley (1)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:52Craig Smith Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Seguin (1), Thomas Harley (1)DAL 1 – 0 VGK · DAL 46% → 65% +19DAL 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P213:03Kaedan Korczak Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (2), William Karlsson (3)DAL 1 – 1 VGK · VGK 33% → 54% +21VGK 33% → 54%+21 pts
- P32:50Joe Pavelski Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Roope Hintz (1)DAL 2 – 1 VGK · DAL 47% → 73% +26DAL 47% → 73%+26 pts
- P317:01William Karlsson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Kaedan Korczak (1), Mark Stone (3)DAL 2 – 2 VGK · VGK 5% → 51% +46VGK 5% → 51%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Fair odds
- VGK -125
- DAL +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 2.9 – 3.2 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +19 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +53 Elo | VGK 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.0 | Goals scored | 4.05th of 31 |
| 1st of 311.0 | Goals allowed | 1.01st of 31 |
| 8th of 31+1.0 | Margin | +3.01st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3158.6% | Shot share | 55.4%6th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3195.8% | Save percentage | 96.2%2nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Stars: last 1