Vegas Golden Knights at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Nicolas RoyGoals1
- Shea TheodoreAssists3
- Shea TheodorePoints3
Jets- Alex IafalloGoals2
- Nikolaj EhlersAssists2
- Alex IafalloPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:57Nicolas Roy Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shea Theodore (4)5–3
- P315:24Jack Eichel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (5), Shea Theodore (3)4–3
- P311:32Alex Iafallo Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (2), Nikolaj Ehlers (2)3–3
- P216:00Cole Perfetti Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (2), Nikolaj Ehlers (1)3–2
- P215:27Alec Martinez Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (4), Paul Cotter (2)3–1
- P20:49Brett Howden Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mark Stone (4)2–1
- P117:42Jonathan Marchessault Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Chandler Stephenson (4), Shea Theodore (2)1–1
- P11:30Alex Iafallo Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Morrissey (4), Nino Niederreiter (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:49Brett Howden Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mark Stone (4)VGK 2 – 1 WPG · VGK 47% → 64% +18VGK 47% → 64%+18 pts
- P215:27Alec Martinez Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: William Karlsson (4), Paul Cotter (2)VGK 3 – 1 WPG · VGK 69% → 86% +17VGK 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P216:00Cole Perfetti Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (2), Nikolaj Ehlers (1)VGK 3 – 2 WPG · WPG 14% → 31% +17WPG 14% → 31%+17 pts
- P311:32Alex Iafallo Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (2), Nikolaj Ehlers (2)VGK 3 – 3 WPG · WPG 18% → 52% +34WPG 18% → 52%+34 pts
- P315:24Jack Eichel Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (5), Shea Theodore (3)VGK 4 – 3 WPG · VGK 49% → 90% +41VGK 49% → 90%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 51%
- Fair odds
- WPG -119
- VGK +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +2 | VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WPG: Laurent Brossoit (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +8 Elo | WPG 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.314th of 31 |
| 1st of 311.3 | Goals allowed | 4.731st of 31 |
| 1st of 31+2.5 | Margin | −1.327th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.7% | Shot share | 54.1%8th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3195.2% | Save percentage | 84.3%31st of 31 |
| 1st of 261–0 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.