Los Angeles Kings at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Trevor MooreGoals2
- Phillip DanaultAssists2
- Trevor MoorePoints3
Jets- Mark ScheifeleGoals1
- Dylan DeMeloAssists1
- Mark ScheifelePoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:44Mark Scheifele Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan DeMelo (2), Vladislav Namestnikov (1)5–1
- P316:32Phillip Danault Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–0
- P314:31Trevor Moore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (2)4–0
- P32:51Arthur Kaliyev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (1), Phillip Danault (3)3–0
- P216:19Trevor Moore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (2), Arthur Kaliyev (1)2–0
- P211:01Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (2), Kevin Fiala (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P211:01Pierre-Luc Dubois Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (2), Kevin Fiala (4)LA 1 – 0 WPG · LA 46% → 67% +20LA 46% → 67%+20 pts
- P216:19Trevor Moore Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (2), Arthur Kaliyev (1)LA 2 – 0 WPG · LA 69% → 86% +17LA 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P32:51Arthur Kaliyev Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Moore (1), Phillip Danault (3)LA 3 – 0 WPG · LA 90% → 98% +7LA 90% → 98%+7 pts
- P314:31Trevor Moore Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikey Anderson (2)LA 4 – 0 WPG · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
- P316:32Phillip Danault Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneLA 5 – 0 WPG · LA >99% → >99% +0LA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 56%
- Fair odds
- WPG -123
- LA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | −14 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +41 Elo | WPG 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 4.53rd of 31 |
| 30th of 315.5 | Goals allowed | 4.528th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−2.0 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 9th of 3154.1% | Shot share | 56.7%6th of 31 |
| 30th of 3183.6% | Save percentage | 85.2%29th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Kings: last 2