Vegas Golden Knights at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights- Paul CotterGoals1
- Michael AmadioAssists2
- Paul CotterPoints2
Blackhawks- Reese JohnsonGoals1
- Ryan DonatoAssists1
- Reese JohnsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:45Corey Perry Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Nick Foligno (2), Kevin Korchinski (2)5–3
- P316:09Paul Cotter Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (2), Alec Martinez (1)5–2
- P313:47Mark Stone Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (1), Chandler Stephenson (5)4–2
- P30:13Nicolas Roy Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (1), Brayden McNabb (3)3–2
- P28:50Reese Johnson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Connor Murphy (1), Ryan Donato (2)2–2
- P27:30Jonathan Marchessault Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (3), Shea Theodore (5)2–1
- P14:05William Karlsson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Paul Cotter (3), Kaedan Korczak (2)1–1
- P11:30Connor Bedard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:30Connor Bedard Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Taylor Hall (2)VGK 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 54% → 68% +14CHI 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P14:05William Karlsson Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Paul Cotter (3), Kaedan Korczak (2)VGK 1 – 1 CHI · VGK 32% → 46% +14VGK 32% → 46%+14 pts
- P27:30Jonathan Marchessault Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (3), Shea Theodore (5)VGK 2 – 1 CHI · VGK 47% → 66% +19VGK 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P28:50Reese Johnson Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Connor Murphy (1), Ryan Donato (2)VGK 2 – 2 CHI · CHI 33% → 53% +20CHI 33% → 53%+20 pts
- P30:13Nicolas Roy Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (1), Brayden McNabb (3)VGK 3 – 2 CHI · VGK 48% → 72% +24VGK 48% → 72%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 51%
- Fair odds
- CHI -118
- VGK +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | +9 | VGK: Adin Hill: team allows 0.45 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHI: Arvid Soderblom: team allows 0.23 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +7 Elo | CHI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 314.0 | Goals scored | 2.227th of 31 |
| 4th of 311.6 | Goals allowed | 2.67th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+2.4 | Margin | −0.417th of 31 |
| 12th of 3152.5% | Shot share | 42.1%30th of 31 |
| 4th of 3194.4% | Save percentage | 93.5%6th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.