Philadelphia Flyers at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals2
- Noah CatesAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Wyatt JohnstonAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:13Joe Pavelski Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (3)4–5
- P312:45Sean Walker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (2)4–4
- P311:58Travis Konecny Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (4), Scott Laughton (4)3–4
- P310:36Jamie Benn Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (2)2–4
- P20:30Roope Hintz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (2), Joe Pavelski (2)2–3
- P116:36Travis Konecny Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (2)2–2
- P110:12Joel Farabee Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Bobby Brink (2), Noah Cates (1)1–2
- P17:52Tyler Seguin Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Ryan Suter (1), Miro Heiskanen (3)0–2
- P14:02Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:02Wyatt Johnston Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (1)PHI 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 55% → 69% +14DAL 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P116:36Travis Konecny Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Cates (2)PHI 2 – 2 DAL · PHI 30% → 46% +16PHI 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P20:30Roope Hintz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Robertson (2), Joe Pavelski (2)PHI 2 – 3 DAL · DAL 54% → 71% +17DAL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P312:45Sean Walker Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (2)PHI 4 – 4 DAL · PHI 14% → 48% +35PHI 14% → 48%+35 pts
- OT2:13Joe Pavelski Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Wyatt Johnston (3)PHI 4 – 5 DAL · DAL 51% → 96% +45DAL 51% → 96%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 54%
- Fair odds
- DAL -122
- PHI +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 3.0 – 3.2 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −2 | PHI: Samuel Ersson (no track record yet) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +29 Elo | DAL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.326th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 2.05th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+1.0 | Margin | +0.310th of 31 |
| 10th of 3153.9% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 31 |
| 8th of 3192.9% | Save percentage | 94.3%5th of 31 |
| 7th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.