Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Miro HeiskanenGoals1
- Miro HeiskanenAssists2
- Miro HeiskanenPoints3
Ducks- Troy TerryGoals1
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Troy TerryPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:47Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (1), Tyler Seguin (2)3–2
- P31:01Leo Carlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (2)2–2
- P218:06Joe Pavelski Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (2), Jason Robertson (1)2–1
- P210:03Roope Hintz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (1), Miro Heiskanen (1)1–1
- P14:37Troy Terry Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (1), Pavel Mintyukov (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:37Troy Terry Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Trevor Zegras (1), Pavel Mintyukov (1)DAL 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 54% → 69% +14ANA 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P210:03Roope Hintz Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (1), Miro Heiskanen (1)DAL 1 – 1 ANA · DAL 27% → 47% +19DAL 27% → 47%+19 pts
- P218:06Joe Pavelski Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Miro Heiskanen (2), Jason Robertson (1)DAL 2 – 1 ANA · DAL 47% → 70% +23DAL 47% → 70%+23 pts
- P31:01Leo Carlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (2)DAL 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 28% → 53% +25ANA 28% → 53%+25 pts
- P36:47Miro Heiskanen Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Steel (1), Tyler Seguin (2)DAL 3 – 2 ANA · DAL 48% → 77% +29DAL 48% → 77%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 53%
- Fair odds
- ANA -120
- DAL +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | −6 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +21 Elo | ANA 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.0 | Goals scored | 3.59th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 3.517th of 31 |
| 13th of 310.0 | Margin | 0.013th of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 39.7%29th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3194.8% | Save percentage | 91.7%12th of 31 |
| 16th of 260–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Stars: last 2