San Jose Sharks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals3
- Sebastian AhoAssists2
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints3
Scoring summary
- P36:06Teuvo Teravainen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (5), Sebastian Aho (5)0–3
- P115:10Teuvo Teravainen Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (3), Jalen Chatfield (1)0–2
- P16:10Teuvo Teravainen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4), Sebastian Aho (4)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:10Teuvo Teravainen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (4), Sebastian Aho (4)SJ 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 55% → 69% +15CAR 55% → 69%+15 pts
- P115:10Teuvo Teravainen Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Dmitry Orlov (3), Jalen Chatfield (1)SJ 0 – 2 CAR · CAR 70% → 83% +13CAR 70% → 83%+13 pts
- P36:06Teuvo Teravainen Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (5), Sebastian Aho (5)SJ 0 – 3 CAR · CAR 94% → >99% +5CAR 94% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 55%
- Fair odds
- CAR -122
- SJ +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | CAR and SJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −30 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.75 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +32 Elo | CAR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 311.1 | Goals scored | 3.95th of 31 |
| 28th of 314.1 | Goals allowed | 4.430th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−3.0 | Margin | −0.523rd of 31 |
| 31st of 3139.3% | Shot share | 56.6%1st of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 84.8%31st of 31 |
| 28th of 310–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.