Seattle Kraken at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Oliver BjorkstrandGoals1
- Oliver BjorkstrandAssists1
- Oliver BjorkstrandPoints2
Hurricanes- Martin NecasGoals2
- Martin NecasAssists1
- Martin NecasPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:50Martin Necas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (4), Sebastian Aho (3)2–3
- P315:36Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (5), Brady Skjei (6)2–2
- P118:22Martin Necas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (4), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (5)2–1
- P114:52Devin Shore Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (5)2–0
- P111:24Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (1), Jamie Oleksiak (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:24Oliver Bjorkstrand Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Jaden Schwartz (1), Jamie Oleksiak (1)SEA 1 – 0 CAR · SEA 45% → 61% +16SEA 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P114:52Devin Shore Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Oliver Bjorkstrand (5)SEA 2 – 0 CAR · SEA 62% → 77% +15SEA 62% → 77%+15 pts
- P118:22Martin Necas Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (4), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (5)SEA 2 – 1 CAR · CAR 22% → 37% +15CAR 22% → 37%+15 pts
- P315:36Jesperi Kotkaniemi Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Necas (5), Brady Skjei (6)SEA 2 – 2 CAR · CAR 9% → 51% +42CAR 9% → 51%+42 pts
- OT4:50Martin Necas Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Tony DeAngelo (4), Sebastian Aho (3)SEA 2 – 3 CAR · CAR 50% → >99% +50CAR 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 56%
- Fair odds
- CAR -123
- SEA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | −5 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +42 Elo | CAR 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 55.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.3 | Goals scored | 4.07th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 4.731st of 31 |
| 27th of 31−1.3 | Margin | −0.724th of 31 |
| 15th of 3151.5% | Shot share | 55.5%3rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 83.7%31st of 31 |
| 23rd of 311–3 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.