Seattle Kraken at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals2
- Vince DunnAssists2
- Jaden SchwartzPoints2
Red Wings- Shayne GostisbehereGoals1
- Shayne GostisbehereAssists2
- Shayne GostisbeherePoints3
Scoring summary
- OT4:55Jordan Eberle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (1), Vince Dunn (6)5–4
- P318:38Jared McCann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (3), Jordan Eberle (2)4–4
- P310:26Alex DeBrincat Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (6)3–4
- P34:38Dylan Larkin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (5), Moritz Seider (6)3–3
- P32:10Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Moritz Seider (5), Dylan Larkin (9)3–2
- P219:04Tye Kartye Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (2)3–1
- P217:54Jaden Schwartz Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (2), Oliver Bjorkstrand (4)2–1
- P25:16Jaden Schwartz Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Vince Dunn (5), Matty Beniers (2)1–1
- P21:07Joe Veleno Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (2), Daniel Sprong (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P217:54Jaden Schwartz Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Alex Wennberg (2), Oliver Bjorkstrand (4)SEA 2 – 1 DET · SEA 46% → 70% +23SEA 46% → 70%+23 pts
- P34:38Dylan Larkin Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (5), Moritz Seider (6)SEA 3 – 3 DET · DET 26% → 53% +27DET 26% → 53%+27 pts
- P310:26Alex DeBrincat Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (10), Shayne Gostisbehere (6)SEA 3 – 4 DET · DET 52% → 83% +31DET 52% → 83%+31 pts
- P318:38Jared McCann Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Matty Beniers (3), Jordan Eberle (2)SEA 4 – 4 DET · SEA <1% → 49% +48SEA <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT4:55Jordan Eberle Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Jared McCann (1), Vince Dunn (6)SEA 5 – 4 DET · SEA 50% → 100% +50SEA 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 60%
- Fair odds
- DET -127
- SEA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −3 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +68 Elo | DET 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 311.8 | Goals scored | 5.01st of 31 |
| 20th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.56th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−1.7 | Margin | +2.52nd of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.3% | Shot share | 51.5%15th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 92.0%7th of 31 |
| 24th of 310–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.