Pittsburgh Penguins at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Erik KarlssonGoals1
- Erik KarlssonAssists2
- Erik KarlssonPoints3
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals2
- Dylan LarkinAssists3
- Alex DeBrincatPoints3
Scoring summary
- P318:49Alex DeBrincat Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (5)3–6
- P318:28Andrew Copp Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: none3–5
- P313:03Bryan Rust Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (3), Marcus Pettersson (2)3–4
- P33:37Erik Karlsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (2), Ryan Graves (2)2–4
- P217:49David Perron Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (4), Alex DeBrincat (3)1–4
- P215:42Andrew Copp Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Petry (2), Michael Rasmussen (1)1–3
- P25:21Ben Chiarot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (3), Jeff Petry (1)1–2
- P112:23Alex DeBrincat Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Austin Czarnik (1), Shayne Gostisbehere (3)1–1
- P10:53Evgeni Malkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (2), Erik Karlsson (2)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:53Evgeni Malkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (2), Erik Karlsson (2)PIT 1 – 0 DET · PIT 46% → 60% +15PIT 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P112:23Alex DeBrincat Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Austin Czarnik (1), Shayne Gostisbehere (3)PIT 1 – 1 DET · DET 38% → 54% +16DET 38% → 54%+16 pts
- P25:21Ben Chiarot Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (3), Jeff Petry (1)PIT 1 – 2 DET · DET 53% → 71% +18DET 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P215:42Andrew Copp Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Petry (2), Michael Rasmussen (1)PIT 1 – 3 DET · DET 74% → 89% +15DET 74% → 89%+15 pts
- P313:03Bryan Rust Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (3), Marcus Pettersson (2)PIT 3 – 4 DET · PIT 1% → 13% +12PIT 1% → 13%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Fair odds
- DET -120
- PIT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −9 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +16 Elo | DET 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 4.34th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 2.712th of 31 |
| 5th of 31+1.7 | Margin | +1.75th of 31 |
| 10th of 3153.6% | Shot share | 58.3%2nd of 31 |
| 8th of 3194.4% | Save percentage | 90.5%17th of 31 |
| 1st of 251–0 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Penguins: last 3