Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Joe VelenoGoals2
- Dylan LarkinAssists2
- Dylan LarkinPoints3
Senators- Ridly GreigGoals1
- Mathieu JosephAssists1
- Jake SandersonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:49Ridly Greig Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathieu Joseph (2), Jakob Chychrun (3)5–2
- P37:23Joe Veleno Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (1)5–1
- P30:28Dylan Larkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4), Moritz Seider (4)4–1
- P214:54David Perron Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (7), Moritz Seider (3)3–1
- P24:18Joe Veleno Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (1)2–1
- P118:15Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (6), David Perron (1)1–1
- P116:54Jake Sanderson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Josh Norris (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:54Jake Sanderson Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (2), Josh Norris (1)DET 0 – 1 OTT · OTT 54% → 70% +16OTT 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P118:15Shayne Gostisbehere Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (6), David Perron (1)DET 1 – 1 OTT · DET 29% → 46% +16DET 29% → 46%+16 pts
- P24:18Joe Veleno Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Christian Fischer (1)DET 2 – 1 OTT · DET 46% → 65% +19DET 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P214:54David Perron Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (7), Moritz Seider (3)DET 3 – 1 OTT · DET 69% → 85% +17DET 69% → 85%+17 pts
- P30:28Dylan Larkin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Shayne Gostisbehere (4), Moritz Seider (4)DET 4 – 1 OTT · DET 89% → 97% +8DET 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 55%
- Fair odds
- OTT -122
- DET +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −7 | −4 | DET: Ville Husso: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +36 Elo | OTT 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.8 | Goals scored | 4.82nd of 31 |
| 10th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.57th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+2.0 | Margin | +2.33rd of 31 |
| 6th of 3155.4% | Shot share | 53.6%11th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.7% | Save percentage | 91.0%13th of 31 |
| 6th of 281–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.