New York Rangers at Seattle Kraken, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals2
- Filip ChytilAssists3
- Filip ChytilPoints3
Kraken- Justin SchultzGoals1
- Eeli TolvanenAssists1
- Justin SchultzPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:30Artemi Panarin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (4), K'Andre Miller (3)4–1
- P217:59Alexis Lafrenière Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (3)3–1
- P213:02Kaapo Kakko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (1), K'Andre Miller (2)2–1
- P112:15Artemi Panarin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (2)1–1
- P18:41Justin Schultz Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (1), Eeli Tolvanen (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:41Justin Schultz Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Brian Dumoulin (1), Eeli Tolvanen (2)NYR 0 – 1 SEA · SEA 54% → 69% +15SEA 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P112:15Artemi Panarin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (2)NYR 1 – 1 SEA · NYR 30% → 46% +15NYR 30% → 46%+15 pts
- P213:02Kaapo Kakko Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jacob Trouba (1), K'Andre Miller (2)NYR 2 – 1 SEA · NYR 47% → 68% +21NYR 47% → 68%+21 pts
- P217:59Alexis Lafrenière Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (3)NYR 3 – 1 SEA · NYR 70% → 87% +17NYR 70% → 87%+17 pts
- P35:30Artemi Panarin Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Filip Chytil (4), K'Andre Miller (3)NYR 4 – 1 SEA · NYR 92% → 99% +6NYR 92% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kraken 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Fair odds
- SEA -120
- NYR +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | −8 | NYR: Jonathan Quick (no track record yet) · SEA: Philipp Grubauer: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +20 Elo | SEA 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 2.029th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.418th of 31 |
| 17th of 31−0.3 | Margin | −1.427th of 31 |
| 5th of 3155.2% | Shot share | 51.4%16th of 31 |
| 28th of 3186.3% | Save percentage | 91.3%11th of 31 |
| 8th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.