Calgary Flames at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flames- Andrew MangiapaneGoals1
- Walker DuehrAssists1
- Andrew MangiapanePoints1
Red Wings- Alex DeBrincatGoals3
- Justin HollAssists3
- Alex DeBrincatPoints4
Scoring summary
- P33:44Alex DeBrincat Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (4), Justin Holl (3)2–6
- P33:07Jake Walman Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (2), David Perron (2)2–5
- P218:34Yegor Sharangovich Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Walker Duehr (2), Nikita Zadorov (2)2–4
- P213:33Alex DeBrincat Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (8), Lucas Raymond (3)1–4
- P212:12Andrew Mangiapane Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (2), Blake Coleman (1)1–3
- P22:00Dylan Larkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (4)0–3
- P19:44Joe Veleno Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (1), Justin Holl (2)0–2
- P11:59Alex DeBrincat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Holl (1), Lucas Raymond (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:59Alex DeBrincat Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Holl (1), Lucas Raymond (2)CGY 0 – 1 DET · DET 52% → 66% +14DET 52% → 66%+14 pts
- P19:44Joe Veleno Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Ben Chiarot (1), Justin Holl (2)CGY 0 – 2 DET · DET 67% → 80% +13DET 67% → 80%+13 pts
- P22:00Dylan Larkin Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Alex DeBrincat (4)CGY 0 – 3 DET · DET 83% → 92% +9DET 83% → 92%+9 pts
- P212:12Andrew Mangiapane Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Backlund (2), Blake Coleman (1)CGY 1 – 3 DET · CGY 5% → 13% +8CGY 5% → 13%+8 pts
- P213:33Alex DeBrincat Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (8), Lucas Raymond (3)CGY 1 – 4 DET · DET 87% → 95% +8DET 87% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Fair odds
- DET -108
- CGY +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CGY 3.1 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CGY | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +19 | CGY: Dan Vladar: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · DET: James Reimer: team allows 0.49 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +43 Elo | DET 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CGY | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.8 | Goals scored | 4.81st of 31 |
| 18th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.66th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +2.23rd of 31 |
| 9th of 3154.1% | Shot share | 52.0%14th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 91.7%9th of 31 |
| 21st of 311–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.