Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Flyers- Bobby BrinkGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists2
- Bobby BrinkPoints2
Sabres- Henri JokiharjuGoals1
- JJ PeterkaAssists1
- Henri JokiharjuPoints1
Scoring summary
- P311:28Bobby Brink Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Joel Farabee (4)5–1
- P32:24Henri Jokiharju Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (7), JJ Peterka (2)4–1
- P214:35Garnet Hathaway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (1), Nicolas Deslauriers (2)4–0
- P114:57Travis Konecny Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–0
- P11:31Louie Belpedio Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: none2–0
- P11:03Scott Laughton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (5), Joel Farabee (3)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:03Scott Laughton Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (5), Joel Farabee (3)PHI 1 – 0 BUF · PHI 43% → 58% +15PHI 43% → 58%+15 pts
- P11:31Louie Belpedio Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: nonePHI 2 – 0 BUF · PHI 58% → 72% +14PHI 58% → 72%+14 pts
- P114:57Travis Konecny Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePHI 3 – 0 BUF · PHI 76% → 87% +11PHI 76% → 87%+11 pts
- P214:35Garnet Hathaway Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Poehling (1), Nicolas Deslauriers (2)PHI 4 – 0 BUF · PHI 94% → 98% +4PHI 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P32:24Henri Jokiharju Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (7), JJ Peterka (2)PHI 4 – 1 BUF · BUF <1% → 3% +2BUF <1% → 3%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 63%
- Fair odds
- BUF -131
- PHI +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −34 | +13 | PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.86 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +91 Elo | BUF 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 56.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PHI | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.5% | Shot share | 47.7%22nd of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.0% | Save percentage | 91.0%15th of 31 |
| 24th of 311–3 | Road vs home | 3–313th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PHI 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.