Carolina Hurricanes at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Stefan NoesenGoals1
- Stefan NoesenAssists1
- Stefan NoesenPoints2
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Garnet HathawayPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:13Teuvo Teravainen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (5), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (6)3–2
- P29:02Michael Bunting Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (6)2–2
- P118:23Garnet Hathaway Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Deslauriers (1), Scott Laughton (6)1–2
- P115:09Owen Tippett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (6)1–1
- P13:11Stefan Noesen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (1), Dmitry Orlov (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:11Stefan Noesen Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (1), Dmitry Orlov (4)CAR 1 – 0 PHI · CAR 45% → 60% +15CAR 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P115:09Owen Tippett Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (6)CAR 1 – 1 PHI · PHI 38% → 55% +17PHI 38% → 55%+17 pts
- P118:23Garnet Hathaway Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Deslauriers (1), Scott Laughton (6)CAR 1 – 2 PHI · PHI 54% → 71% +16PHI 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P29:02Michael Bunting Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (6)CAR 2 – 2 PHI · CAR 27% → 46% +19CAR 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P316:13Teuvo Teravainen Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Michael Bunting (5), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (6)CAR 3 – 2 PHI · CAR 49% → 92% +44CAR 49% → 92%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- CAR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 2.9 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | +15 | CAR: Frederik Andersen: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.37 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.511th of 31 |
| 28th of 313.9 | Goals allowed | 3.115th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 1st of 3157.7% | Shot share | 54.6%3rd of 31 |
| 31st of 3186.1% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 31 |
| 17th of 312–4 | Road vs home | 3–16th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.