Anaheim Ducks at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals3
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Frank VatranoPoints3
Flyers- Travis KonecnyGoals2
- Bobby BrinkAssists2
- Travis KonecnyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:00Joel Farabee Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Bobby Brink (4), Noah Cates (3)7–4
- P311:12Frank Vatrano Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (3)7–3
- P39:51Travis Konecny Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Sean Couturier (5), Bobby Brink (3)6–3
- P33:14Brett Leason Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Carrick (2), Ross Johnston (2)6–2
- P32:42Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (8)5–2
- P212:35Travis Konecny Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (2), Scott Laughton (5)4–2
- P211:49Cam Atkinson Goal (5) Backhand, assists: Owen Tippett (4), Cam York (2)4–1
- P29:30Adam Henrique Goal (1) Poke, assists: Max Jones (1), Jakob Silfverberg (2)4–0
- P26:58Frank Vatrano Goal (7) Poke, assists: Jackson LaCombe (3), Ryan Strome (7)3–0
- P115:20Frank Vatrano Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (2), Mason McTavish (5)2–0
- P10:58Ryan Strome Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:58Ryan Strome Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mason McTavish (4)ANA 1 – 0 PHI · ANA 45% → 60% +15ANA 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P115:20Frank Vatrano Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (2), Mason McTavish (5)ANA 2 – 0 PHI · ANA 63% → 77% +15ANA 63% → 77%+15 pts
- P26:58Frank Vatrano Goal (7) Poke, assists: Jackson LaCombe (3), Ryan Strome (7)ANA 3 – 0 PHI · ANA 82% → 92% +10ANA 82% → 92%+10 pts
- P212:35Travis Konecny Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Walker (2), Scott Laughton (5)ANA 4 – 2 PHI · PHI 6% → 16% +10PHI 6% → 16%+10 pts
- P32:42Trevor Zegras Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Strome (8)ANA 5 – 2 PHI · ANA 90% → 98% +7ANA 90% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Fair odds
- PHI -120
- ANA +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −15 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.16 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.37 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 312.8 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 2.68th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.98th of 31 |
| 24th of 3146.8% | Shot share | 54.7%4th of 31 |
| 11th of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.8%18th of 31 |
| 8th of 312–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.