Anaheim Ducks at Columbus Blue Jackets, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CBJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Frank VatranoGoals1
- Ross JohnstonAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints1
Blue Jackets- Adam FantilliGoals1
- Adam FantilliAssists1
- Adam FantilliPoints2
Scoring summary
- OT2:20Frank Vatrano Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Groulx (1)3–2
- P316:13Brett Leason Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (1)2–2
- P39:13Adam Fantilli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (2), Jake Bean (2)1–2
- P215:49Ryan Strome Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (2), Mason McTavish (3)1–1
- P116:49Emil Bemstrom Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (5), Adam Fantilli (2)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:49Emil Bemstrom Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ivan Provorov (5), Adam Fantilli (2)ANA 0 – 1 CBJ · CBJ 54% → 70% +16CBJ 54% → 70%+16 pts
- P215:49Ryan Strome Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (2), Mason McTavish (3)ANA 1 – 1 CBJ · ANA 26% → 47% +21ANA 26% → 47%+21 pts
- P39:13Adam Fantilli Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Roslovic (2), Jake Bean (2)ANA 1 – 2 CBJ · CBJ 52% → 82% +30CBJ 52% → 82%+30 pts
- P316:13Brett Leason Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Ross Johnston (1)ANA 2 – 2 CBJ · ANA 7% → 49% +42ANA 7% → 49%+42 pts
- OT2:20Frank Vatrano Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Groulx (1)ANA 3 – 2 CBJ · ANA 49% → 96% +47ANA 49% → 96%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jackets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CBJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CBJ 55%
- Fair odds
- CBJ -122
- ANA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.3 CBJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CBJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −7 | ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CBJ: Elvis Merzlikins: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CBJ +33 Elo | CBJ 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CBJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CBJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 15th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 3.214th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.8 | Margin | −0.217th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3146.8% | Shot share | 48.9%20th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 91.8%8th of 31 |
| 25th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.