Boston Bruins at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Matthew PoitrasGoals2
- Jake DeBruskAssists1
- Matthew PoitrasPoints2
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Frank VatranoAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Scoring summary
- P317:26Brad Marchand Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (3)3–1
- P310:20Matthew Poitras Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jake DeBrusk (1), Charlie McAvoy (3)2–1
- P36:29Matthew Poitras Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Geekie (1), Ian Mitchell (1)1–1
- P35:05Mason McTavish Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Strome (4), Frank Vatrano (1)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P35:05Mason McTavish Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Ryan Strome (4), Frank Vatrano (1)BOS 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 54% → 80% +26ANA 54% → 80%+26 pts
- P36:29Matthew Poitras Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Morgan Geekie (1), Ian Mitchell (1)BOS 1 – 1 ANA · BOS 19% → 46% +27BOS 19% → 46%+27 pts
- P310:20Matthew Poitras Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Jake DeBrusk (1), Charlie McAvoy (3)BOS 2 – 1 ANA · BOS 47% → 80% +33BOS 47% → 80%+33 pts
- P317:26Brad Marchand Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (3)BOS 3 – 1 ANA · BOS 96% → >99% +4BOS 96% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 54%
- Fair odds
- ANA -139
- BOS +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 2.9 – 3.4 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +18 | −4 | BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.46 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +27 Elo | ANA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 58.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 1st of 311.5 | Goals allowed | 3.316th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+1.8 | Margin | −0.318th of 31 |
| 16th of 3151.2% | Shot share | 44.3%24th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3194.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%12th of 31 |
| 1st of 312–0 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.