Boston Bruins at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Brad MarchandGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists2
- Brad MarchandPoints3
Kings- Carl GrundstromGoals1
- Trevor LewisAssists1
- Carl GrundstromPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:50Carl Grundstrom Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Matt Roy (2), Trevor Lewis (2)4–2
- P317:48Brad Marchand Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (3), Pavel Zacha (1)4–1
- P215:33Brad Marchand Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (2), Derek Forbort (2)3–1
- P214:45Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Milan Lucic (2), Derek Forbort (1)2–1
- P26:28Alex Laferriere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Kevin Fiala (7)1–1
- P113:10David Pastrnak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (3), James van Riemsdyk (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:10David Pastrnak Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brad Marchand (3), James van Riemsdyk (1)BOS 1 – 0 LA · BOS 46% → 62% +16BOS 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P26:28Alex Laferriere Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (1), Kevin Fiala (7)BOS 1 – 1 LA · LA 35% → 54% +19LA 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P214:45Morgan Geekie Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Milan Lucic (2), Derek Forbort (1)BOS 2 – 1 LA · BOS 47% → 69% +22BOS 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P215:33Brad Marchand Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (2), Derek Forbort (2)BOS 3 – 1 LA · BOS 69% → 86% +17BOS 69% → 86%+17 pts
- P317:48Brad Marchand Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (3), Pavel Zacha (1)BOS 4 – 1 LA · BOS >99% → >99% +0BOS >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 54%
- Fair odds
- LA -121
- BOS +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +1 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +27 Elo | LA 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 54.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 4.82nd of 31 |
| 1st of 311.3 | Goals allowed | 3.822nd of 31 |
| 4th of 31+1.7 | Margin | +1.07th of 31 |
| 10th of 3154.1% | Shot share | 51.5%15th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3195.2% | Save percentage | 88.6%26th of 31 |
| 1st of 311–0 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.