Anaheim Ducks at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Leo CarlssonGoals1
- Ryan StromeAssists2
- Troy TerryPoints2
Bruins- David PastrnakGoals1
- Charlie McAvoyAssists3
- Charlie McAvoyPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT2:08Mason McTavish Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (1), Jackson LaCombe (2)4–3
- P319:45Troy Terry Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (3), Ryan Strome (6)3–3
- P318:05Leo Carlsson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Troy Terry (3), Sam Carrick (1)2–3
- P216:40David Pastrnak Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (2), Charlie McAvoy (6)1–3
- P23:01Matt Grzelcyk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (5), Matthew Poitras (2)1–2
- P21:41Charlie Coyle Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (4), Charlie McAvoy (4)1–1
- P115:00Radko Gudas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (1), Ryan Strome (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:00Radko Gudas Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Urho Vaakanainen (1), Ryan Strome (5)ANA 1 – 0 BOS · ANA 44% → 61% +17ANA 44% → 61%+17 pts
- P21:41Charlie Coyle Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: David Pastrnak (4), Charlie McAvoy (4)ANA 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 37% → 55% +18BOS 37% → 55%+18 pts
- P23:01Matt Grzelcyk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (5), Matthew Poitras (2)ANA 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 55% → 72% +17BOS 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P319:45Troy Terry Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Mintyukov (3), Ryan Strome (6)ANA 3 – 3 BOS · ANA <1% → 50% +50ANA <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT2:08Mason McTavish Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Leo Carlsson (1), Jackson LaCombe (2)ANA 4 – 3 BOS · ANA 49% → 95% +46ANA 49% → 95%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- ANA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +23 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.07 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.57 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +86 Elo | BOS 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 1.21st of 31 |
| 19th of 31−0.4 | Margin | +2.03rd of 31 |
| 24th of 3145.8% | Shot share | 52.9%11th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 95.9%1st of 31 |
| 12th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.