Boston Bruins at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Pavel ZachaGoals1
- Kevin ShattenkirkAssists1
- Pavel ZachaPoints1
BlackhawksScoring summary
- P35:02Trent Frederic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (2), Charlie Coyle (4)3–0
- P34:06Matthew Poitras Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (2)2–0
- P23:50Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (1), Jake DeBrusk (2)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:50Pavel Zacha Goal (1) Deflected, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (1), Jake DeBrusk (2)BOS 1 – 0 CHI · BOS 47% → 65% +18BOS 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P34:06Matthew Poitras Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Geekie (2)BOS 2 – 0 CHI · BOS 74% → 91% +17BOS 74% → 91%+17 pts
- P35:02Trent Frederic Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: James van Riemsdyk (2), Charlie Coyle (4)BOS 3 – 0 CHI · BOS 92% → 98% +6BOS 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 51%
- Fair odds
- CHI -118
- BOS +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −2 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +5 Elo | CHI 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.327th of 31 |
| 1st of 311.4 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+1.8 | Margin | −0.723rd of 31 |
| 19th of 3150.2% | Shot share | 43.1%28th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3195.3% | Save percentage | 91.9%7th of 31 |
| 1st of 313–0 | Road vs home | 0–127th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.