Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Tage ThompsonAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints3
Senators- Mathieu JosephGoals1
- Mathieu JosephAssists1
- Mathieu JosephPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:37Tage Thompson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none6–4
- P318:58Mathieu Joseph Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (4), Jake Sanderson (4)5–4
- P318:38Josh Norris Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (3), Tim Stützle (5)5–3
- P315:35Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Thomas Chabot (3), Mathieu Joseph (3)5–2
- P218:48Tage Thompson Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Owen Power (3), Henri Jokiharju (3)5–1
- P217:08Alex Tuch Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (7), Tage Thompson (1)4–1
- P213:14Jakob Chychrun Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Hamonic (1), Vladimir Tarasenko (5)3–1
- P24:04Jeff Skinner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (4), Casey Mittelstadt (5)3–0
- P111:20Zemgus Girgensons Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Connor Clifton (1), Kyle Okposo (2)2–0
- P18:06Jeff Skinner Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (2), Casey Mittelstadt (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:06Jeff Skinner Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (2), Casey Mittelstadt (4)BUF 1 – 0 OTT · BUF 41% → 56% +16BUF 41% → 56%+16 pts
- P111:20Zemgus Girgensons Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Connor Clifton (1), Kyle Okposo (2)BUF 2 – 0 OTT · BUF 57% → 72% +15BUF 57% → 72%+15 pts
- P24:04Jeff Skinner Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (4), Casey Mittelstadt (5)BUF 3 – 0 OTT · BUF 77% → 89% +12BUF 77% → 89%+12 pts
- P213:14Jakob Chychrun Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Hamonic (1), Vladimir Tarasenko (5)BUF 3 – 1 OTT · OTT 7% → 18% +11OTT 7% → 18%+11 pts
- P217:08Alex Tuch Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (7), Tage Thompson (1)BUF 4 – 1 OTT · BUF 85% → 95% +10BUF 85% → 95%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 62.4% of 599 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 63%
- Fair odds
- OTT -150
- BUF +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.8 – 3.4 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | BUF on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +1 | +16 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (no track record yet) · OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +94 Elo | OTT 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 60.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.2 | Goals scored | 4.23rd of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +1.26th of 31 |
| 11th of 3152.3% | Shot share | 55.2%4th of 31 |
| 18th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 88.8%23rd of 31 |
| 23rd of 310–1 | Road vs home | 3–111th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.