Colorado Avalanche at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche
Sabres- Rasmus DahlinGoals1
- Jeff SkinnerAssists2
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:52Rasmus Dahlin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (2)0–4
- P28:16Tyson Jost Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (4), Owen Power (5)0–3
- P21:39Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (4), Henri Jokiharju (5)0–2
- P110:32JJ Peterka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (3)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P110:32JJ Peterka Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (3)COL 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 54% → 69% +15BUF 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P21:39Casey Mittelstadt Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (4), Henri Jokiharju (5)COL 0 – 2 BUF · BUF 70% → 84% +14BUF 70% → 84%+14 pts
- P28:16Tyson Jost Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (4), Owen Power (5)COL 0 – 3 BUF · BUF 86% → 94% +8BUF 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P316:52Rasmus Dahlin Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (2)COL 0 – 4 BUF · BUF >99% → >99% +0BUF >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 50%
- Fair odds
- BUF -117
- COL +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −6 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +1 Elo | COL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.0 | Goals scored | 2.918th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.3 | Goals allowed | 3.420th of 31 |
| 2nd of 31+1.7 | Margin | −0.523rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.8% | Shot share | 49.1%20th of 31 |
| 7th of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 89.6%21st of 31 |
| 6th of 314–1 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.