Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Mikko RantanenGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists3
- Mikko RantanenPoints4
Islanders- Cal ClutterbuckGoals1
- Jean-Gabriel PageauAssists2
- Cal ClutterbuckPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:29Ross Colton Goal (1) , assists: none7–4
- P319:00Ryan Johansen Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (7)6–4
- P37:47Mikko Rantanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (4)5–4
- P34:40Anders Lee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–4
- P219:31Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (5)4–3
- P219:18Bowen Byram Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (4), Cale Makar (6)3–3
- P25:55Simon Holmstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (2), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2)2–3
- P22:56Kyle Palmieri Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (3), Noah Dobson (4)2–2
- P112:52Cale Makar Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Mikko Rantanen (6), Devon Toews (3)2–1
- P110:03Cal Clutterbuck Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (3), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1)1–1
- P15:19Ryan Johansen Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (5), Cale Makar (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:55Simon Holmstrom Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (2), Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2)COL 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 53% → 71% +18NYI 53% → 71%+18 pts
- P219:18Bowen Byram Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (4), Cale Makar (6)COL 3 – 3 NYI · COL 25% → 48% +23COL 25% → 48%+23 pts
- P219:31Nathan MacKinnon Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (5)COL 4 – 3 NYI · COL 48% → 72% +24COL 48% → 72%+24 pts
- P34:40Anders Lee Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 4 – 4 NYI · NYI 25% → 52% +27NYI 25% → 52%+27 pts
- P37:47Mikko Rantanen Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Tomas Tatar (4)COL 5 – 4 NYI · COL 48% → 78% +30COL 48% → 78%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 48%
- Fair odds
- NYI -116
- COL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +18 | −5 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.46 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +12 Elo | COL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 314.2 | Goals scored | 2.723rd of 31 |
| 2nd of 311.6 | Goals allowed | 3.317th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+2.6 | Margin | −0.723rd of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.9% | Shot share | 44.1%26th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3194.3% | Save percentage | 90.8%16th of 31 |
| 1st of 313–0 | Road vs home | 1–116th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.