Colorado Avalanche at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche
Penguins- Reilly SmithGoals2
- Bryan RustAssists1
- Reilly SmithPoints2
Scoring summary
- P310:35Sidney Crosby Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (7)0–4
- P26:00Lars Eller Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Radim Zohorna (1)0–3
- P116:51Reilly Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (5), Bryan Rust (1)0–2
- P14:40Reilly Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:40Reilly Smith Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: noneCOL 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 53% → 68% +15PIT 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P116:51Reilly Smith Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (5), Bryan Rust (1)COL 0 – 2 PIT · PIT 69% → 83% +13PIT 69% → 83%+13 pts
- P26:00Lars Eller Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Radim Zohorna (1)COL 0 – 3 PIT · PIT 85% → 94% +9PIT 85% → 94%+9 pts
- P310:35Sidney Crosby Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (7)COL 0 – 4 PIT · PIT >99% → >99% +0PIT >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Fair odds
- PIT -116
- COL +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | −8 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +14 Elo | COL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 314.7 | Goals scored | 2.820th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.0 | Goals allowed | 3.316th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+2.7 | Margin | −0.521st of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.5% | Shot share | 54.5%4th of 31 |
| 5th of 3193.0% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 31 |
| 1st of 314–0 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.