Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Stars- Thomas HarleyGoals1
- Thomas HarleyAssists1
- Jason RobertsonPoints2
Penguins- Bryan RustGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Bryan RustPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:51Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jamie Benn (2)4–1
- P35:22Thomas Harley Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (3), Jason Robertson (3)3–1
- P216:03Evgenii Dadonov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (1), Thomas Harley (2)2–1
- P27:37Jason Robertson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Craig Smith (1), Roope Hintz (2)1–1
- P119:22Bryan Rust Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (6), Sidney Crosby (3)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:22Bryan Rust Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Guentzel (6), Sidney Crosby (3)DAL 0 – 1 PIT · PIT 54% → 71% +17PIT 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P27:37Jason Robertson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Craig Smith (1), Roope Hintz (2)DAL 1 – 1 PIT · DAL 28% → 47% +19DAL 28% → 47%+19 pts
- P216:03Evgenii Dadonov Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Duchene (1), Thomas Harley (2)DAL 2 – 1 PIT · DAL 47% → 69% +22DAL 47% → 69%+22 pts
- P35:22Thomas Harley Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Joe Pavelski (3), Jason Robertson (3)DAL 3 – 1 PIT · DAL 75% → 92% +17DAL 75% → 92%+17 pts
- P313:51Wyatt Johnston Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Jamie Benn (2)DAL 4 – 1 PIT · DAL 99% → >99% +1DAL 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 53%
- Fair odds
- PIT -121
- DAL +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 3.0 – 3.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | +6 | DAL: Jake Oettinger: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +23 Elo | PIT 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DAL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.213th of 31 |
| 5th of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.213th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.5 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3146.2% | Shot share | 54.8%6th of 31 |
| 5th of 3192.9% | Save percentage | 90.6%15th of 31 |
| 10th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.