Pittsburgh Penguins at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Radim ZohornaGoals1
- Lars EllerAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints1
Blues- Brandon SaadGoals2
- Kasperi KapanenAssists2
- Brandon SaadPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:27Radim Zohorna Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Lars Eller (2), Drew O'Connor (1)2–4
- P315:13Brandon Saad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (2), Robert Thomas (3)1–4
- P27:12Colton Parayko Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (1), Oskar Sundqvist (1)1–3
- P25:39Jake Neighbours Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (1), Justin Faulk (1)1–2
- P119:55Evgeni Malkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (4)1–1
- P19:33Brandon Saad Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Jordan Kyrou (1)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:33Brandon Saad Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (2), Jordan Kyrou (1)PIT 0 – 1 STL · STL 55% → 70% +15STL 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P119:55Evgeni Malkin Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (4)PIT 1 – 1 STL · PIT 29% → 45% +17PIT 29% → 45%+17 pts
- P25:39Jake Neighbours Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (1), Justin Faulk (1)PIT 1 – 2 STL · STL 54% → 72% +18STL 54% → 72%+18 pts
- P27:12Colton Parayko Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Alexey Toropchenko (1), Oskar Sundqvist (1)PIT 1 – 3 STL · STL 72% → 86% +14STL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P315:13Brandon Saad Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Kasperi Kapanen (2), Robert Thomas (3)PIT 1 – 4 STL · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Fair odds
- STL -125
- PIT +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 2.9 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | +15 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +52 Elo | STL 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.5 | Goals scored | 1.529th of 31 |
| 10th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 1.53rd of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | 0.012th of 31 |
| 11th of 3153.5% | Shot share | 43.0%27th of 31 |
| 10th of 3192.3% | Save percentage | 96.9%1st of 31 |
| 7th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.