Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- JJ PeterkaGoals1
- Jordan GreenwayAssists1
- Tage ThompsonPoints1
Devils- Erik HaulaGoals2
- Luke HughesAssists2
- Erik HaulaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P314:17Erik Haula Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (1), John Marino (4)4–5
- P312:35Dylan Cozens Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Okposo (3)4–4
- P32:09Jack Hughes Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (3), Timo Meier (5)3–4
- P217:32Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (2), Jeff Skinner (2)3–3
- P213:47Erik Haula Goal (3) Backhand, assists: none2–3
- P116:11Jesper Bratt Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: none2–2
- P115:42Tage Thompson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (3), Jordan Greenway (3)2–1
- P17:41Alexander Holtz Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Luke Hughes (2), Michael McLeod (1)1–1
- P16:11JJ Peterka Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Henri Jokiharju (4), Owen Power (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:47Erik Haula Goal (3) Backhand, assists: noneBUF 2 – 3 NJ · NJ 53% → 74% +20NJ 53% → 74%+20 pts
- P217:32Rasmus Dahlin Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (2), Jeff Skinner (2)BUF 3 – 3 NJ · BUF 25% → 47% +22BUF 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P32:09Jack Hughes Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Luke Hughes (3), Timo Meier (5)BUF 3 – 4 NJ · NJ 53% → 77% +24NJ 53% → 77%+24 pts
- P312:35Dylan Cozens Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Okposo (3)BUF 4 – 4 NJ · BUF 14% → 48% +34BUF 14% → 48%+34 pts
- P314:17Erik Haula Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Kevin Bahl (1), John Marino (4)BUF 4 – 5 NJ · NJ 52% → 89% +37NJ 52% → 89%+37 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 55%
- Fair odds
- NJ -122
- BUF +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +2 | BUF: Eric Comrie: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NJ: Vitek Vanecek: team allows 0.04 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NJ +33 Elo | NJ 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 4.22nd of 31 |
| 17th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.824th of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.4 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 18th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 50.8%16th of 31 |
| 21st of 3190.0% | Save percentage | 88.0%27th of 31 |
| 13th of 311–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.