Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Brandon BiroGoals2
- Tage ThompsonAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints3
Flyers- Joel FarabeeGoals1
- Travis SanheimAssists2
- Travis SanheimPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:52Brandon Biro Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (6), Peyton Krebs (1)5–2
- P313:28Tage Thompson Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (6)4–2
- P33:03Owen Power Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (4), Alex Tuch (5)3–2
- P116:17Cam Atkinson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (9)2–2
- P110:00Brandon Biro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (3), Jordan Greenway (4)2–1
- P13:38Casey Mittelstadt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (1), Jeff Skinner (5)1–1
- P10:55Joel Farabee Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:55Joel Farabee Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Sanheim (8)BUF 0 – 1 PHI · PHI 55% → 69% +14PHI 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P13:38Casey Mittelstadt Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (1), Jeff Skinner (5)BUF 1 – 1 PHI · BUF 31% → 45% +14BUF 31% → 45%+14 pts
- P110:00Brandon Biro Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (3), Jordan Greenway (4)BUF 2 – 1 PHI · BUF 45% → 61% +16BUF 45% → 61%+16 pts
- P116:17Cam Atkinson Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Travis Sanheim (9)BUF 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 38% → 54% +17PHI 38% → 54%+17 pts
- P33:03Owen Power Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (4), Alex Tuch (5)BUF 3 – 2 PHI · BUF 47% → 73% +26BUF 47% → 73%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -123
- BUF +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 2.9 – 3.2 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +12 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.30 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 10th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 15th of 310.0 | Margin | +0.213th of 31 |
| 17th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 53.8%4th of 31 |
| 19th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 88.9%26th of 31 |
| 16th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 3–211th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.