Pittsburgh Penguins at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Reilly SmithGoals2
- Bryan RustAssists3
- Reilly SmithPoints4
Sharks- Jacob MacDonaldGoals1
- Jacob MacDonaldAssists1
- Jacob MacDonaldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P312:10Jake Guentzel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: none10–2
- P311:02Evgeni Malkin Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (5), Rickard Rakell (3)9–2
- P39:20Jacob MacDonald Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (6), Anthony Duclair (1)8–2
- P30:49Bryan Rust Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jake Guentzel (9), Erik Karlsson (6)8–1
- P211:53Matt Nieto Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Noel Acciari (1), Vinnie Hinostroza (1)7–1
- P29:27Kris Letang Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Sidney Crosby (6), Bryan Rust (5)6–1
- P29:12Evgeni Malkin Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Reilly Smith (4), Rickard Rakell (2)5–1
- P28:34Anthony Duclair Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (5), Jacob MacDonald (1)4–1
- P24:26Vinnie Hinostroza Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–0
- P23:21Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (4), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (1)3–0
- P112:55Reilly Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (3), Bryan Rust (3)2–0
- P11:30Reilly Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (5), Jake Guentzel (8)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:30Reilly Smith Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (5), Jake Guentzel (8)PIT 1 – 0 SJ · PIT 46% → 61% +15PIT 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P112:55Reilly Smith Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Marcus Pettersson (3), Bryan Rust (3)PIT 2 – 0 SJ · PIT 63% → 77% +14PIT 63% → 77%+14 pts
- P23:21Jake Guentzel Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (4), Pierre-Olivier Joseph (1)PIT 3 – 0 SJ · PIT 81% → 91% +10PIT 81% → 91%+10 pts
- P24:26Vinnie Hinostroza Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: nonePIT 4 – 0 SJ · PIT 91% → 97% +5PIT 91% → 97%+5 pts
- P28:34Anthony Duclair Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (5), Jacob MacDonald (1)PIT 4 – 1 SJ · SJ 3% → 7% +5SJ 3% → 7%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 49%
- Fair odds
- SJ -116
- PIT +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −5 | −16 | PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.41 more goals than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +9 Elo | PIT 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 53.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 312.9 | Goals scored | 1.031st of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 4.531st of 31 |
| 21st of 31−0.3 | Margin | −3.531st of 31 |
| 2nd of 3155.6% | Shot share | 40.0%31st of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 88.8%25th of 31 |
| 18th of 311–2 | Road vs home | 0–529th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.