Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals2
- Claude GirouxAssists3
- Claude GirouxPoints3
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Sidney CrosbyAssists1
- Sidney CrosbyPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:26Jake Guentzel Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (4), Chad Ruhwedel (1)5–2
- P313:38Drake Batherson Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (6)5–1
- P313:07Brady Tkachuk Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (8), Claude Giroux (7)4–1
- P217:34Sidney Crosby Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (2), Kris Letang (5)3–1
- P25:28Dominik Kubalik Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (5), Mathieu Joseph (4)3–0
- P114:14Brady Tkachuk Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (6), Tim Stützle (7)2–0
- P14:24Ridly Greig Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (5), Jakob Chychrun (4)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:24Ridly Greig Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Claude Giroux (5), Jakob Chychrun (4)OTT 1 – 0 PIT · OTT 45% → 60% +15OTT 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P114:14Brady Tkachuk Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Claude Giroux (6), Tim Stützle (7)OTT 2 – 0 PIT · OTT 62% → 76% +15OTT 62% → 76%+15 pts
- P25:28Dominik Kubalik Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Ridly Greig (5), Mathieu Joseph (4)OTT 3 – 0 PIT · OTT 80% → 91% +11OTT 80% → 91%+11 pts
- P217:34Sidney Crosby Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Bryan Rust (2), Kris Letang (5)OTT 3 – 1 PIT · PIT 4% → 13% +9PIT 4% → 13%+9 pts
- P313:07Brady Tkachuk Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Tim Stützle (8), Claude Giroux (7)OTT 4 – 1 PIT · OTT 98% → >99% +2OTT 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Fair odds
- PIT -125
- OTT +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 2.9 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −10 | +5 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +52 Elo | PIT 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 313.9 | Goals scored | 3.018th of 31 |
| 19th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.99th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3156.1% | Shot share | 53.7%5th of 31 |
| 27th of 3188.2% | Save percentage | 91.6%9th of 31 |
| 28th of 310–2 | Road vs home | 2–215th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.