Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Jakob ChychrunGoals1
- Rourke ChartierAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints1
Islanders- Noah DobsonGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists1
- Bo HorvatPoints2
Scoring summary
- P36:45Noah Dobson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (4), Bo Horvat (2)2–3
- P212:25Jakob Chychrun Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rourke Chartier (1), Parker Kelly (2)2–2
- P26:52Claude Giroux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (6), Josh Norris (2)1–2
- P113:05Cal Clutterbuck Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (1)0–2
- P12:41Bo Horvat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (4), Noah Dobson (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:41Bo Horvat Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (4), Noah Dobson (5)OTT 0 – 1 NYI · NYI 54% → 69% +14NYI 54% → 69%+14 pts
- P113:05Cal Clutterbuck Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Cizikas (1)OTT 0 – 2 NYI · NYI 70% → 82% +13NYI 70% → 82%+13 pts
- P26:52Claude Giroux Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Tim Stützle (6), Josh Norris (2)OTT 1 – 2 NYI · OTT 14% → 28% +14OTT 14% → 28%+14 pts
- P212:25Jakob Chychrun Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Rourke Chartier (1), Parker Kelly (2)OTT 2 – 2 NYI · OTT 27% → 47% +20OTT 27% → 47%+20 pts
- P36:45Noah Dobson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (4), Bo Horvat (2)OTT 2 – 3 NYI · NYI 52% → 80% +28NYI 52% → 80%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 53%
- Fair odds
- NYI -120
- OTT +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −14 | −22 | OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.34 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.55 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +19 Elo | NYI 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 314.2 | Goals scored | 3.017th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 4.329th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.7 | Margin | −1.326th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3156.2% | Shot share | 44.5%27th of 31 |
| 28th of 3187.3% | Save percentage | 89.7%21st of 31 |
| 27th of 310–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.